The Philadelphia Phillies’ season-opening tilt with the visiting Miami Marlins on Friday may have significant late money riding in.
Because of the moneyline, Philadelphia -210 at DraftKings Sportsbook as of midday Thursday, there is no rush for a Phillies backer to get this bet down.
Miami, at +175, will be attractive whenever a Marlins backer pulls the trigger. That’s a good number for a team that won’t contend with a home field disadvantage.
A Marlins bettor receives a good payout for going against “just because” money. There will be a lot of Phillies action just because it’s opening day and just because baseball is finally back.
Contrarians often do well in situations like this.
Listed starting pitchers are Aaron Nola for the Phillies against Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins.
Let’s dig a bit deeper into the opening day odds at New Jersey online sportsbooks for the Phillies-Marlins on Friday.
What the Marlins vs. Phillies odds say
The best odds of the game may ride on the over-under of 8.5 runs, which was -102 for the over and -124 for the under at DraftKings.
Here’s a look at the Phillies vs Marlins odds from DraftKings, FanDuel and PointsBet:
[odds-feed game=59628 sportsbooks=DraftKings,FanDuel,PointsBet styling=small odds=moneyline]
Bettors may wait for some clues after the first night of action — with the New York Yankees visiting the Washington Nationals and the San Francisco Giants invading the Los Angeles Dodgers — to get a feel for the offenses.
Pitchers are supposed to dominate those matchups — Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer in the opener and Johnny Cueto vs Clayton Kershaw in the second game. But if they don’t, bettors may feel the Phillies and Marlins will have strong run production and hit the over market hard on Friday.
New rules about the permanent DH and extra innings beginning with a runner on second base could fuel offensive optimism. There are four or five gimme outs in a game that just vanished.
Yet the Yankees-Nationals over-under dipped by a full run early this week, indicating that the adage of pitchers being ahead of the hitters early is in vogue.
Best bets ahead of Friday’s game
The Phillies are taking a strong percentage of money in the prop area for opening day, moving the lines down.
If the Phillies bettor wants to give more than a run, the -1.5 line is +104, down from +110 on Wednesday. A Marlins backer will lay -122 to take a +1.5 on the run line.
Do you think the Phillies can win in a slugfest? If they win by at least two runs and the game total hits at least nine runs, the payoff is +195.
That came down significantly from +270 on Wednesday. If that bet hits and you made it on Wednesday, you will feel like a genius.
And then there are educated crapshoots.
Picking the Phillies to win by 1-3 runs is +130, and a margin of four or more runs is +250.
The Marlins would return +270 to win by 1-3 runs and +650 to prevail by four or more.
A good idea here is to select what you consider the final score first and then see what props adhere.
Marlins vs. Phillies: more props action at FanDuel
On Thursday, FanDuel Sportsbook added a prop that will be almost impossible not to try: picking the correct score after one inning.
The options are all over the place, but some pay really well.
If the Phillies lead 2-1 after the first frame, it’s +5000, or 50-1. A 2-2 tie after one inning? We’ve seen it before. Try +10000, or 100-1. Heck, for a couple of bucks?
It’s important to budget and be disciplined with money, because the props board is a wagering festival.
But hitting a high-price prop is where the fun is. That’s where bragging rights begin, and this is why saving some of the budget for the props is smart.
Don’t ignore the Marlins’ might
Although the Marlins are dogs on Friday, they were problematic for the Phillies last year.
Even while the Phillies won 81 games and the Marlins 57, Miami won 10 of the 19 games against Philadelphia last year. The Marlins even swept three games in Philadelphia in June.
Miami has won eight of the last 12 meetings.
Offense? We can talk about offense. In one game last season, the teams combined for 30 runs. In the next, it was 12.
Phillies’ Citizens Bank Park favors offense
Only one betting year has been tabulated, but Citizens Bank Park’s reputation for high-scoring games is borne out.
The average runs per game scored at the Philadelphia baseball stadium is 9.9, if you are thinking about the over-under of 8.5 at DraftKings.
Oddsmakers have adjusted to that number, pushing the bar pretty high. The over-under record here is 36-42-3.
Think about striking early. The over on the 0.5 first-inning runs prop has hit in five consecutive games here between the two teams. The Phillies do have a strong lineup at the top with Andrew McCutchen, Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins.
The Marlins, on the other hand, have lost each of their last six Friday road games.
Phillies take late prop money
At William Hill, Philadelphia Phillies bettors might be “over” joyed.
The bookmaker reported Wednesday that the Phillies have a book-leading total of 90% on their season win total of 31.5 in total dollars wagered.
In total tickets, the Phillies have a solid 88%, among the top three.
The Phillies are one of three teams whose over has gotten at least 80% in both categories, with the Mets (31.5) and Phillies (31) being the others.
Philadelphia’s over actually is No. 1 among all National League teams, with 90% of the total dollars wagered, and only trails the Rays’ over at 95% for all of baseball.
The Phillies’ over has also captured 88% of the total number of tickets, which matches the Diamondbacks’ (31.5) over for the highest percentage in the NL. Only the Athletics’ over with 93% of the total number of tickets surpasses the Phillies and Diamondbacks.
Betting tip: FanDuel odds boost for Phillies playoff chances
FanDuel just boosted the Phillies’ odds of making the playoffs.
They were +220 until midweek. Now the Phillies are a robust +320 to make the playoffs, with a maximum $50 bet. This is a big move — almost 50% — in the odds boost world.
There is no telling how long this bet will be offered at that price.
At the very least, probabilities will change after opening day. The prop was likely designed to entice action before Friday’s first pitch.